Does Iowa Matter in 2012? When did it last matter?

My goodness, now that the "end times" are over, the media has all moved to the next fascinating topic de'jour- whether or not Iowa matters in 2012. But if you read the Washington Post article, it hasn't really mattered for a long time. Since 1976 when the party held its first caucus,

"there have been only two instances in which a winner who was not an incumbent has gone on to take the GOP nomination. And only one of those, George W. Bush in 2000, won the White House."

So, a few thousand of the "true believers" go out on a night, argue, and pick the candidate they want. And that candidate doesn't go on to win the White House.


In the meantime, voters in neighboring states, never see the candidates until the field has been winnowed down. And even then, the remaining candidates make precious few stops, so more centrists candidates are never in the mix.

There have been many times over the past several Presidential cycles when there was a Republican or Democrat that I particularly liked, but by the time my state's primary came along he wasn't in the mix. And, given that early states don't do a good job picking the winner and primary voters sometimes divide and conquer and get the candidate no one on their side wanted (see: Huckabee and Romney in 2008. The folks who really cared, split the vote and a candidate that the party really didn't seem to get behind - McCain - won. Anyone but me remember how packed Palin's rallies were and how McCain got the most attention when talking about her? This is not to say I wanted Huckabee or Romney, just that the process doesn't work).